Memoirs of a Speculator: Asking Google Gemini about the biggest individual stock loss of my short life (QVC Group)

In August of 2024 I bought QVC Group for a few big reasons...

(1) Cheap Penny Stock (High Risk|Return)
- “Penny stocks are shares of small companies that typically trade for less than $5 per share, often on over-the-counter (OTC) markets rather than major exchanges like the NYSE or NASDAQ. Known for high volatility and low liquidity, they offer high-risk, high-reward potential due to small market capitalizations and limited financial reporting.” (Chase.com, Sofi.com, investopedia.com)
- Key Characteristics and Risks (Chase.com, Sofi.com, investopedia.com)
  - Low Price & Market Cap: Usually priced under $5, often representing companies with market capitalizations under $300 million.
  - Trading Venue: Mostly traded via OTC, such as the “pink sheets,” which have less stringent listing standards than major exchanges.
  - High Volatility: Prices can change rapidly, offering potential for large gains or total losses.
  - Low Liquidity: It can be difficult to find buyers when trying to sell, leading to high bid-ask spreads.
  - Information Scarcity: These companies may have limited publicly available financial information, making them difficult to analyze.
- Why Investors Use Them: Penny stocks are often appealing to speculators looking for low-cost, high-percentage returns. However, due to their speculative nature, they are often compared to “meme coins” or considered highly risky for beginners. (Britannica.com, cleartax.in, yahoo.com)
(2) Michael Burry (A Legendary “Big Short” Investor)
- Google’s AI Overview:
  - “Michael Burry, through his hedge fund Scion Asset Management, had a cyclical investment history with Qurate Retail (the parent company of QVC) from Q3 2020 until he completely exited his position in Q1 2024. His investment was part of a value play, betting on the company’s turnaround potential and cash flow to pay down debt, despite the company’s struggles with declining traditional TV viewership and mounting debt.” (Stockcircle.com, seekingalpha.com, bitget.com)
  - Michael Burry’s Investment Timeline: Burry’s engagement with Qurate Retail, which trades under ticker symbols like QRTEA and currently QVCGA, was marked by repeated entries and exits. (WWD.com, finance.yahoo.com)
    - Initial Stake: Scion Asset Management first established a position in Qurate Retail in the third quarter of 2020.
    - Significant Activity in 2022: The investment made headlines in November 2022 when a regulatory filing revealed Scion had added 5 million Class A shares, causing the stock to rally significantly. At the time, analysts believed Burry saw value in the company’s strong customer base and the potential success of its pivot to streaming and e-commerce platforms.
    - Trading In and Out: Throughout 2023, Burry frequently traded the stock, buying and selling shares across different quarters.
    - Final Exit: Burry sold all his remaining shares in Qurate Retail in the first quarter of 2024.
  - Context of the Investment:
    - Burry’s thesis centered on the idea that Qurate’s unique video-commerce model, despite being considered outdated by some, could generate significant cash flow and had a loyal, high-spending customer base. He believed that the company’s management could successfully execute a turnaround plan, address its debt, and transition its audience to digital platforms like social media and streaming services. (seekingalpha.com, reddit.com)
    - The company, which officially changed its name from Qurate Retail to QVC Group in February 2025, faced significant challenges, including a declining stock price that led to a transfer to the Nasdaq Capital Market and discussions of a reverse stock split to avoid delisting. (wwd.com, nasdaq.com)
    - Ultimately, Burry exited his position before the company’s name change and amid ongoing financial pressures, including revenue declines and increasing net losses reported through late 2025. (Stockcircle.com, bizjournals.com)

In March of 2025 I sold QVC Group one big reason:

The position had decreased by approximately $17,000…

August 2024: $6,500 + $6,000
September 2024: $4,936.42
November 2024: $1,128 + $3,643.20
Other QVC Group investments not depicted above: Lost approximately $1,300
Excluding other potential QVC Group stock holdings and losses that I’m too lazy to look up right now, the total position loss FY2025 = 4,650.05 + $4,150.05 + $3,213.38 + $2,109.79 + $684.02 + $1,300 = $16,107.29

Approximately a $17,000 LOSS as I recall… OUCH!

Those decisions represent my biggest single financial loss. I hope it remains that way! Without diving into all of my personal finances, I’m guessing that loss represented approximately 10% of my net worth…

Cut to today… It’s been nearly a year since I decided to abandon the sunk-cost fallacy and cut my losses. I’m listening to a Stan Druckenmiller interview when he mentions he has no strict rule against buying into a stock at a higher price from where you previously sold it. And, the desire to gain back that $17,000 returns… I ask Google Gemini to enlighten me.

Gemini – QVC’s Undervalued Stock Explained:

Conversation with Gemini…

Good morning Gemini, I’m wondering why QVC group stock is reportedly undervalued when it has such a high debt. Is that value QVC’s equity? What resources make up that equity? Are those resources able to be liquidated if the company fails? And would that result in a payout for stock holders?

The situation with QVC Group (the parent company formerly known as Qurate Retail, Inc.) in 2026 is a classic case of a “distressed value” play. To understand why it’s called “undervalued” despite its massive debt, you have to look past the standard accounting and into the hierarchy of who gets paid when a company either survives or fails.

1. Why is it called “undervalued” with so much debt?

When analysts call a stock like QVC “undervalued,” they aren’t usually looking at its Book Value (what the assets are worth on paper). Instead, they are looking at its Free Cash Flow (FCF).

The Leverage Effect: QVC generates significant cash from its operations (projected EBITDA for 2026 is around $1.6 billion). Because the company has so much debt, the “Equity” (the stock you buy) acts like a high-stakes bet. If QVC uses that cash to pay down debt, the value of the “slice” belonging to stockholders grows exponentially.
The “Option” Value: Investors see the stock as a “call option” on the company’s survival. If the company successfully pivots to streaming and social commerce (via Project Athens), the stock could rise 5x or 10x. If they fail, it goes to zero. “Undervalued” in this context means the market is pricing in a 90% chance of failure, while some investors believe the chance of survival is better than that.

2. Is that “Value” QVC’s Equity?

Strictly speaking, no. In fact, as of early 2026, QVC’s Shareholders’ Equity on the balance sheet is actually negative (roughly -$3 billion in some recent reports).

Book Value vs. Market Value: Accounting-wise, the company owes more than its assets are worth on paper.
Equity as a “Residual Claim”: Equity is simply whatever is left over after all debts are paid. When the debt is $7 billion and the assets are $7 billion, the equity value is theoretically $0. The “value” people see is the potential for future profits to eventually flip that negative number back to positive.

3. What resources make up that equity?

The “resources” (assets) that back the company include:

Tangible Assets: Cash on hand (approx. $1.8 billion), inventory (the products they sell), and physical property (studios and warehouses).
Intangible Assets: This is the big one. QVC’s balance sheet is dominated by Trademarks and Goodwill (the “QVC” and “HSN” brand names).

Note: These are risky because they were hit with a massive $2.4 billion impairment charge in 2025. This means the company admitted its brand names aren’t worth as much as they used to be.

4. Liquidation: Can they be sold, and do you get paid?

If the company fails and goes into Chapter 7 liquidation, here is the reality for a stockholder:

The Payout Hierarchy: There is a “waterfall” of who gets paid:
1. Senior Secured Lenders: (Banks and certain bondholders) get paid first.
2. Unsecured Bondholders: Get whatever is left.
3. Preferred Stockholders (QRTEP): They have a “liquidation preference” (roughly $1.27 billion total). They must be paid in full before common stockholders get a dime.
4. Common Stockholders (QRTEA/B): You are at the very bottom.
Can assets be liquidated? Yes, the warehouses and inventory can be sold easily. However, the Trademarks/Goodwill (the biggest “resource” on the books) often become worthless in a bankruptcy because the brand is “broken.”

The Result for Stockholders: In a liquidation scenario for QVC Group, it is highly unlikely common stockholders would receive a payout. The debt and preferred stock obligations are so large that they would likely consume all proceeds from selling the physical assets.

Would you like me to pull the specific debt maturity dates for 2026 and 2027 to see how much time the company has to turn things around?

Wow, that’s really enlightening. Thanks for sharing that information about the payout hierarchy. Is there a document or law that describes that payout hierarchy?

This is a great question that gets to the heart of corporate law and the “fine print” of investing. There isn’t just one document; rather, there is a federal law that creates the framework and company-specific documents that apply that framework to QVC (Qurate Retail).

1. The Federal Law: The US Bankruptcy Code

The “master rulebook” for this hierarchy is Title 11 of the United States Code. Two specific sections are the heavy hitters here:

11 U.S.C. § 726 (Chapter 7): This law dictates the “Distribution of property of the estate” in a liquidation. It mandates that creditors (people the company owes money to) must be satisfied in a specific order before any “equity interest holders” (you, the stockholder) see a penny.
11 U.S.C. § 1129(b) (Chapter 11): This is known as the “Absolute Priority Rule.” It states that a reorganization plan cannot be “fair and equitable” if a junior class (like common stockholders) receives anything while a senior class (like bondholders) is not paid in full, unless the senior class votes to allow it.

2. The Company Documents: The 10-K and Certificate of Designations

While the law sets the rules, QVC’s specific “payout line” is described in two places:

The Annual Report (Form 10-K): In the “Description of Indebtedness” and “Risk Factors” sections, QVC explicitly states that its common stock is “subordinate” to its debt. It warns that in the event of insolvency, there may not be enough assets to cover the debt, leaving the stock worthless.
The Certificate of Designations (for QRTEP): This is the most important document for the Preferred Stock. It is a legal contract filed with the SEC that specifically gives QRTEP holders a “Liquidation Preference” of $100 per share.The Math: If there are roughly 12.7 million shares of QRTEP, the company must pay roughly $1.27 billion to those preferred holders after paying off the billions in debt, but before the common stockholders get anything.

Summary of the “Liquidation Waterfall”

If QVC were to be liquidated today, the money would flow through these “buckets” in this exact legal order:

Priority	Group	Governing Document
1st	Secured Creditors (Banks/Bondholders)	Credit Agreements / Indentures
2nd	Unsecured Creditors (Suppliers/Unsecured Bonds)	Indentures / 11 U.S.C. § 726
3rd	Preferred Stock (QRTEP Holders)	Certificate of Designations
4th	Common Stock (QRTEA/QRTEB Holders)	Corporate Charter / 11 U.S.C. § 726

The “Bottom Line” for You

Because QVC has roughly $6–7 billion in debt and $1.27 billion in preferred stock claims, the company would likely need to be sold for over $8 billion in a “fire sale” for common stockholders to receive a single dollar. Given that the market currently values the whole company’s equity at a fraction of that, it shows why the stock is considered a “high-risk” bet on the company’s survival, rather than a claim on its current physical assets.

Would you like me to look up the exact “Liquidation Preference” clause from their most recent SEC filing to see if any new debt has been placed ahead of the preferred stock?

Thanks so much Gemini. That would be great. Also, I’m wondering why guru focus has reported this stock as undervalued when there is clearly so much debt, the top assets include what is likely to be a worthless brand name, and the company appears to be heading towards bankruptcy?

To answer your question about the “undervalued” label and the legal status of your shares, we have to look at the tug-of-war between mathematical value (what a computer sees) and solvency risk (what a human sees).

1. The Liquidation Preference & “New” Debt

The document you’re looking for is the Certificate of Designations for the 8.0% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (QRTEP).

I’ve reviewed the 2025 filings, and the core terms remain:

The Claim: Each share of QRTEP has a $100 liquidation preference. If the company is sold or liquidated, they owe you $100 per share plus any unpaid dividends before common stockholders (QRTEA) get $0.01.
The “New” Debt: In late 2024 and 2025, Qurate issued Senior Secured Notes due 2029 (at roughly 6.875%). These are “Senior Secured,” meaning they are backed by the actual assets of QVC (the warehouses, the cameras, the inventory).
The Impact: This new debt sits above the preferred stock in the hierarchy. Essentially, Qurate is “extending the runway” by borrowing new money to pay off old debt. While this keeps the company alive, it adds more weight to the “buckets” that must be filled before a stockholder gets paid.

2. Why does GuruFocus say it’s “Undervalued”?

Sites like GuruFocus use automated algorithms (like the GF Value or DCF Model). These computers look at the stock differently than a bankruptcy lawyer would:

The “Earnings Power” Trap: QVC still generates a lot of cash—roughly $500 million to $1 billion in Free Cash Flow annually. If you ignore the debt for a second, a company making that much cash “should” be worth billions.
The Multiple Discrepancy: The algorithm sees a company with a Market Cap of ~$200M generating $500M in cash. To a computer, that’s a “Price-to-Cash-Flow” ratio of 0.4x. Since a “healthy” company usually trades at 10x, the computer screams “95% UNDERVALUED!”
The Human Reality: The computer doesn’t always weigh the fact that 100% of that cash flow is legally required to go toward interest payments and debt maturity “walls” for the next five years. GuruFocus reflects potential value if the debt were gone; the market price reflects the high probability that the debt will eventually swallow the equity.

3. The “Worthless” Brand Name & Resources

You hit on a key point regarding the brand name. On the balance sheet, “QVC” might be listed as a billion-dollar asset.

In a healthy company: That brand allows them to charge more and attract loyal customers (The “Moat”).
In a liquidation: A brand name is an intangible asset. If QVC goes bankrupt, who wants to buy the “QVC” name? Maybe a competitor or a private equity firm, but they would buy it for pennies on the dollar.
Liquidation Value: When analysts do a “Liquidation Analysis,” they usually discount inventory by 50% and intangible assets (brands/goodwill) by 90-100%. This is why the stock is so cheap—the “real” liquidation value of the physical stuff (buildings/trucks) is far less than the $6+ billion they owe.

Summary: The “Lottery Ticket” Perspective

Investors buying QVC today aren’t buying it for the assets; they are buying a Lottery Ticket on a Turnaround.

If “Project Athens” (their turnaround plan) works: They pay down debt, the “risk of death” disappears, and the stock could skyrocket because the computer’s “undervalued” math finally becomes reality.
If it fails: The hierarchy you learned about kicks in, the senior lenders take the warehouses, and the stock goes to zero.

Would you like me to look up the “Debt Maturity Profile” for 2026 and 2027? This would show exactly how much cash QVC needs to find in the next 24 months to avoid a default.

yes please. thanks Gemini.

As of February 2026, QVC Group (Qurate Retail) is staring down what Wall Street calls a “debt wall.” The reason the stock appears so cheap on paper (undervalued) while carrying so much risk is found in their specific repayment deadlines.

Here is the breakdown of what the company owes in the next 24 months and why it matters to you.

1. The 2026 “Debt Wall”

The single biggest threat to QVC’s survival is the $2.9 billion Senior Secured Credit Facility (their primary bank loan) which matures on October 27, 2026.

The Problem: In late 2025, QVC admitted in its SEC filings that there is “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern. This is because they likely don’t have enough cash ($1.8 billion on hand) to pay off that $2.9 billion loan when it comes due in October.
The Leverage Trap: They have a strict legal rule (a covenant) that says their debt cannot be more than 4.5x their earnings (EBITDA). As of late 2025, they were hovering at 4.2x. If their earnings drop even slightly, the banks could technically call the debt early, triggering an immediate crisis.

2. The 2027 Maturity (Partially Cleared)

Previously, 2027 was a major hurdle with over $575 million in notes due. However, management executed a “Liability Management Exercise” (LME) in late 2024:

They successfully exchanged about 92% of those 2027 notes for new debt that doesn’t come due until 2029.
This was a brilliant move to buy time, but it came at a cost: the new 2029 debt has a much higher interest rate (approx. 6.875%). They essentially traded a “near-term heart attack” for a “long-term heavy weight.”

3. Why GuruFocus Still Says “Undervalued”

If you look at the raw numbers, the “undervalued” tag comes from a mechanical calculation of Free Cash Flow (FCF).

The “Gold” in the Garbage: Despite the debt, QVC is still a cash machine. It generates roughly $500M – $1B in FCF a year.
The Algorithm’s View: If you take that cash flow and project it 10 years into the future, a computer says the company should be worth billions.
The Market’s View: Investors are ignoring the cash flow because they are focused on that October 2026 deadline. They believe the company might have to file for bankruptcy just to “reorganize” that $2.9 billion loan, which would likely wipe out the common stockholders.

Summary Table: Near-Term Debt Schedule

Date	Amount Due	Type	Status
Oct 27, 2026	$2.9 Billion	Credit Facility	CRITICAL RISK (Refinancing needed)
Late 2027	~$44 Million	4.75% Notes	Managed (Most exchanged to 2029)
2028-2029	~$1.2 Billion	New Secured Notes	“The Extended Runway”

The “Next Big Event”

The company is scheduled to host its Q4 2025 Earnings Call on February 26, 2026. This is the date when management must provide a clear plan on how they will handle the October 2026 maturity. If they announce a deal with the banks to extend that deadline, the “undervalued” thesis might finally start to reflect in the stock price. If they don’t, the bankruptcy talk will likely intensify.

Would you like me to set a reminder for you on February 26th, or would you like me to look into the “Project Athens” cost-saving targets to see if they are actually hitting their goals?

Looking into the “project athens” cost-savings targets would be great, thanks again gemini

Project Athens, which officially concluded at the end of 2024, was designed as a multi-year turnaround plan to stabilize Qurate Retail (now QVC Group) by focusing on margin protection and cash flow.

While the project met its primary internal targets, the company entered 2026 in a “race against time” as declining revenue threatens to outpace the cost savings achieved.

The Project Athens “Scorecard” (2022–2024 Results)

The initiative aimed for a $500 million+ run-rate impact on Adjusted OIBDA (Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization) by the end of 2024.

Savings Achievement: Management confirmed that Project Athens was “successfully completed” as of the FY2024 earnings report (Feb 2025). It delivered the targeted $500M+ impact through headcount reductions, warehouse consolidation, and renegotiated shipping contracts.
Inventory Efficiency: A major win was the reduction of inventory levels, which freed up roughly $200M–$300M in cash over the period. The company also reduced its reliance on Chinese-sourced goods by nearly 10% to mitigate tariff risks.
Debt Reduction: In 2024 alone, the company used the cash generated from these savings to reduce its principal debt by $442 million.

Current Strategy: Transition to “WIN” (2025–2027)

With Project Athens closed, the company launched the “WIN” Growth Plan in early 2025. This phase shifts from “survival” to “growth,” though it includes even more aggressive cost-cutting:

Milestone	Action Taken (2025–2026)
HSN Consolidation	Closed the HSN campus in St. Petersburg, FL, moving all operations to West Chester, PA to save on overhead.
Workforce Reduction	Eliminated approximately 900 positions (~5% of the workforce) in March 2025.
Streaming Pivot	Targeting $1.5 billion in social and streaming commerce revenue by 2027 to replace lost linear TV viewers.

The “Sales Deleverage” Problem

Despite the successful cost-cutting, the 2025 financial reports (specifically Q3 2025) showed a worrying trend: Sales deleverage. Even though the company is leaner, revenue has continued to slide (down 6% in Q3 2025). Because fixed costs (like TV carriage fees) are hard to cut, the falling revenue is “eating” the profit margins that Project Athens tried to build.

Key Concern for 2026: As of early 2026, the company still faces a significant $2.9 billion “debt wall” (the bank credit facility) maturing in October 2026.

Is it enough to cover the 2026 Debt Wall?

The savings from Project Athens gave the company a “bridge,” but current performance is tight:

The Good: The company has remained below its 4.5x leverage covenant (sitting around 4.2x in late 2025).
The Bad: Free Cash Flow (FCF) turned negative (-$184M) in the first nine months of 2025 due to higher interest rates and fulfillment pressures.
The Verdict: The cost savings were necessary for survival, but the company’s ability to refinance that $2.9B in October 2026 depends entirely on whether the new “WIN” plan can stop the revenue bleed in the first half of this year.

Would you like me to pull the specific debt maturity schedule for the remaining 2027–2029 notes to see what the “post-2026” outlook looks like?

QVC Group Q3 2025 Financial Review

This video provides a summary of the 2025 layoffs and organizational changes that followed the conclusion of Project Athens, offering context on the current state of the company’s turnaround efforts.

QVC/HSN layoffs announced – YouTube

Shawn Wilsie · 2K views

yes please, thanks again Gemini. You make these rabbit holes a whole lot easier…

Welcome to the deep end of the “rabbit hole”! Dealing with distressed companies like QVC (Qurate Retail) is a bit like playing 4D chess—you have to look at not just what they owe, but when they owe it.

By swapping their debt in late 2024, management essentially cleared a path through 2027 and 2028. If they can climb the “mountain” of 2026, they actually have a surprisingly smooth valley on the other side.

The Post-2026 Debt Schedule (Principal Amounts)

Here is exactly what the “post-cliff” landscape looks like for 2027–2029.

Year	Amount Due	Debt Type	The “Vibe”
2027	~$44 Million	4.75% Senior Secured Notes	The Quiet Year. Since 92% of this was moved to 2029, this is now a “rounding error” for a company this size.
2028	~$72 Million	4.375% Senior Secured Notes	The Buffer. Like 2027, the heavy lifting was pushed out, giving the company breathing room to execute its “WIN” growth plan.
2029	~$1.24 Billion	Senior Secured & Exchangeable Notes	The Second Cliff. This includes the $605M “new” notes issued at 6.875% and several exchangeable debentures.

The “Undervalued” Strategy: 2027 as the Promised Land

This schedule explains why some investors (and algorithms like GuruFocus) are so obsessed with the stock.

The “Bridge”: If QVC can successfully refinance that $2.9 billion due in October 2026, they enter a 24-month period (2027–2028) where they owe almost nothing in principal repayments.
The “Cash Stack”: During those two years, if they can maintain even half of their current cash flow, they could theoretically stack $1 billion+ in cash.
The “Payoff”: They could then use that cash to buy back the 2029 debt at a discount or finally pay a massive dividend to stockholders.

The Resources (The “Equity” Ingredients)

You asked what resources make up that equity. As of the latest filings in early 2026, here is what’s left in the cupboard:

Inventory (~$1 Billion): This is the most liquid “resource.” It’s actual product sitting in warehouses ready to be sold.
Property & Equipment (~$370 Million): Physical studios, cameras, and those massive distribution centers.
The “Intangibles” (~$2 Billion): This is the “QVC” and “HSN” brand names.The Reality Check: Last year, they wrote down these brands by $2.4 billion. This tells us that even the company admits their “moat” is shrinking. In a failure, these are the assets that usually vanish first.

The Verdict on the Payout

If the company fails before October 2026, the common stockholder likely gets $0. The $2.9 billion bank loan and the $1.27 billion in preferred stock are “senior” to you. They would eat all the inventory and buildings for breakfast.

However, if they survive 2026, the “undervalued” label starts to look very real because the risk of a $0 payout drops significantly.

Since we are currently in February 2026, would you like me to track the specific “Earnings Date” (expected Feb 26) so you can see if they announce a deal to move that 2026 debt cliff?

yes please

Events are saved in the Google Calendar app. To get an event reminder, you’ll need to open or install the app and add a notification to this event.

Open Calendar

I’ve added the QVC Group Q4 2025 Earnings Call to your calendar for Thursday, February 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

Why this date is the “Main Event”:

As we discussed, this call is the critical moment for the “undervalued” thesis. Analysts will be listening for one thing above all else: A plan to refinance the $2.9 billion October 2026 debt cliff.

If they announce a deal: It confirms management has found a way to bridge the gap to the “smooth valley” of 2027–2028. This could be the catalyst that finally makes the stock price reflect those cash-flow numbers GuruFocus is seeing.
If they don’t: Expect the “going concern” language to get even louder, as they’ll have only eight months left to figure out a solution before the banks can technically force a restructuring.

Call Details (added to your calendar):

Time: 8:30 AM ET (Press release issued before market open)
Dial-in: (877) 704-4234
Passcode: 13757530
Webcast: QVC Investor Relations

Enjoy the rabbit hole—hopefully, this one leads to some clarity on the 26th! Is there anything else you’d like me to look into before then?

No Gemini. You have been great. Thank you.

It was my absolute pleasure! Navigating the world of distressed debt and “deep value” stocks can feel like reading a thriller novel where the ending hasn’t been written yet.

The Big Picture Recap

To wrap things up before you go, here is the “cheat sheet” for your files:

The Valuation Gap: GuruFocus sees the cash flow (the engine); the market sees the debt (the weight). The stock is “undervalued” only if the weight doesn’t sink the boat first.
The Liquidation Reality: In a worst-case scenario, the brand name and warehouses belong to the banks and preferred stockholders first. Common stock is a “residual claim,” meaning you get what’s left over (which, right now, is mathematically less than zero).
The 2026 Cliff: October 27, 2026, is the date that matters. Survival past that point is the “win” condition for the stock to potentially rebound.

I’ve got that earnings call on your calendar for the 26th. If anything big breaks in the news before then—like a sudden debt refinancing deal or a new asset sale—just give me a shout and we can dive back down the rabbit hole together.

Would you like me to prepare a “Cheat Sheet” of specific questions or red-flag keywords to listen for during that Feb 26th call?

yes please

This “Cheat Sheet” is designed to help you cut through the corporate jargon during the February 26th call. Management’s goal is to sound confident, but the specific words they use (or avoid) will tell you if they are actually solving the October 2026 debt crisis.

🚩 Red-Flag Keywords (Listen for these with caution)

If you hear these, it suggests the “undervalued” thesis is under extreme pressure:

“Amending the Credit Facility”: This means they are asking the banks for a break because they can’t pay the $2.9B or are about to break their 4.5x leverage rule.
“Exploring Strategic Alternatives”: In Wall Street speak, this is often a polite way of saying “We are trying to sell a piece of the company or looking for a bankruptcy lawyer.”
“Sales Deleverage”: This means sales are falling faster than they can cut costs. This “eats” the savings they made from Project Athens.
“Non-Cash Impairment”: A hint that they are about to admit the “QVC” or “HSN” brand names (those “resources” you asked about) are worth even less than they thought.

✅ Green-Flag Keywords (Signs the “Turnaround” is working)

If you hear these, the “undervalued” argument becomes much stronger:

“Extended Maturity”: If they announce the $2.9B loan is now due in 2028 or 2029 instead of October 2026, the risk of a $0 payout drops significantly.
“Accretive Debt Repurchase”: This means they used their cash to buy back their own debt at a discount (e.g., paying 70 cents to wipe out $1 of debt). This is great for stockholders.
“Streaming Revenue Growth”: If their pivot to streaming is finally replacing the loss of cable TV viewers, the “business model” is saved.
“Positive Working Capital Swing”: This means they are turning inventory into cash very efficiently.

🧐 Top 3 Questions for Analysts

During the Q&A session (usually the last 30 minutes of the call), listen to see if analysts ask these specific questions:

“What is the specific timeline for refinancing the October 2026 bank facility?”
- Why: If management is vague (“We are in talks”), it’s a sign they don’t have a deal yet. If they say, “We expect to close a new facility by Q2,” they are confident.
“How much of the $500M Project Athens savings is being offset by lower viewership in linear TV?”
- Why: You want to know if they are actually getting richer, or if they are just “running up a down-escalator.”
“Are there any plans for additional asset sales to shore up liquidity?”
- Why: Selling a warehouse or a brand (like Zulily in the past) brings in cash to pay down the debt wall, which protects the stock’s value.

💡 Pro-Tip for the Call

Keep an eye on the QRTEP (Preferred Stock) price during the call. Because those holders get $1.27 billion before you get a dime, the preferred stock often reacts faster and more accurately to news of a bankruptcy risk than the common stock (QRTEA) does.

You’re all set for the 26th! If you want me to summarize the transcript for you after the call is over, just let me know. Happy hunting!

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

Okay, what’s the point…?

(1) I bought QVC Group without doing this type of research…

(2) Gemini just did it for me… All I had to do was ask…

(3) ASK MORE QUESTIONS.

One more point:

We are currently in the midst of an artificial intelligence arms race. Chat GPT already has a pay wall. Do you think Google Gemini or other AI systems are going to provide this type of information for free forever? If you’re a retail speculator (like me) you should probably be setting aside some time to ask an AI platform about the stocks that make up your portfolio…

It’s not going to be free forever…

Published by jrtelfer

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