“Although war is probably the most brutalizing of human experiences, it has been an inseparable part of the evolution of mankind. How can this apparent contradiction be explained? Is there something fundamentally flawed in human nature to make it so belligerent? Or is war an inevitable outcome of the social and political institutions in which individuals and states operate?” – The Causes of War by Efraim Karsh (Freedman, 2007)
Polarization continues in the United States while more pervasive conflicts rage abroad. Some of these conflicts started in the 1940’s. Others are more recent. But all conflicts can be traced back centuries and millennia to a persistent and intractable history of violence among Homo sapiens.
Not all humans are violent. But conflicts do not require everyone to be violent. A minority of violent people are more than enough to start a war.
Not all violent people are violent for life. But conflicts do not require people to be violent for life. A temporary commitment to violence will do.
A minority of people who are violent for a small portion of their lives can produce more than enough violence to start a conflict.
Bailey and Tupy (2020) and Pinker (2018) are some authors who have highlighted a downward trend in 20th century conflicts. The first two decades of the 21st century seemed to maintain that trend. But now it appears that downward trend in violence is reversing.
Davies, Pettersson, and Öberg (2023) report the 237,000 total fatalities due to organized violence in 2022 were higher than any year since 1994 when when over 800,000 were killed as genocidal massacres devastated Rwanda. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED, 2024) annual reports for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 recorded the following total number of fatalities from political violence, respectively: 151,887 (ACLED, 02/03/2020), 145,883 (ACLED, 18/03/2021), 131,370 (ACLED, 08/03/2022), 147,110 (ACLED, 08/03/2022), and approximately 145,000 (ACLED, 20/01/2023). As nations increase their military budgets and old conflicts reignite across central Africa, Western Europe, the Near East, and portions of Southeast Asia, it feels reasonable to ask if wars are inevitable (United Nations, n.d.).
| Year | Fatalities from political violence |
| 2018 | 151,887 (ACLED, 02/Mar/2020) https://acleddata.com/2020/03/02/acled-2019-the-year-in-review/ |
| 2019 | 145,883 (ACLED, 18/Mar/2021) https://acleddata.com/2021/03/18/acled-2020-the-year-in-review/ |
| 2020 | 131,370 (ACLED, 08/Mar/2022) https://acleddata.com/2022/03/08/2021-year-in-review/ |
| 2021 | 147,110 (ACLED, 08/Mar/2022) https://acleddata.com/2022/03/08/2021-year-in-review/ |
| 2022 | 145,000 (ACLED, 20/Jan/2023) https://acleddata.com/2023/01/31/global-disorder-2022-the-year-in-review/#s2 |
ACLED. (2024, May 16). ACLED | Bringing Clarity to Crisis. https://acleddata.com/
Can humans achieve peace? In Eternal Peace (1795/1949) Immanuel Kant theorized the following rules or principles for maintaining peace between nation-states:
(1) “No treaty of peace shall be held to be such, which is made with the secret reservation of the material for a future war.”
(2) “No state having an independent existence, whether it be small or great, may be acquired by another state through inheritance, exchange, purchase, or gift.”
(3) “Standing armies shall gradually disappear.”
(4) “No debts shall be contracted in connection with the foreign affairs of the state.”
(5) “No state shall interfere by force in the constitution and government of another state.”
(6) “No state at war with another shall permit such acts of warfare as much make mutual confidence impossible in time of future peace: such as the employment of assassins, of poisoners, the violation of articles of surrender, the instigation of treason in the state against which it is making war, etc.”
These peace principles are commonly broken by many nations. Most nations have a military. Most nations have debts. Most nations are breaking these principles.
Kant also asserts that these nations should:
(a) guarantee the following rights and freedoms to its people through a written constitution and representative government: (1) “…freedom of all members of society…”, (2) “…dependence of all upon a single common legislation as subjects…”, and (3) “…equality of all as citizens.”,
(b) “The law of nations should be based upon a federalism of free states.”, and
(c) “The Cosmopolitan or World Law shall be limited to conditions of universal hospitality.”
The cosmopolitan law (c) would guarantee travelers and tourists safe passage and visitation rights within and between all nations. The law of nations (b) would be “…a union of nations which maintains itself, prevents wars, and steadily expands.” The League of Nations and United Nations may be analogous to this law of nations principle, but Kant may be suggesting a more formal international constitution. What is clear that most autocracies and many democracies fail to fulfill these criteria.
While Kant’s keys to perpetual peace are theoretically useful, they may not be practical. They have not been put to the test. Some might say they never should be put to the test.
The idea of mutually assured destruction “…refers to a situation where two parties are in a stalemate, and neither can make a move without causing their own destruction” (Farnam Street Media Inc., n.d.). Some believe stockpiles of nuclear weapons among rival nations maintain peace by guaranteeing prompt retaliation and annihilation of the aggressor (Historical Office, n.d.). Others believe that stockpiles of nuclear weapons do more to assure rather than deter destruction (Ruff, 2022).
Kant’s principles of perpetual peace may be both impractical and reasonable. It is impractical to expect humanity to do something it has never done: maintain peace. How can a species defy its own nature?
“…the truth is that war in the twentieth century has had less to do with the promotion of ‘good’ and the eradication of ‘evil’ than with the pursuit of specific self-serving interests. Wars have stemmed from such varied reasons as ambition, greed, or insecurity, and have been waged for such objectives as power seeking, territorial aggrandizement, ethnic and national rivalries, or religious schisms… war is far from being eliminated as a social and political phenomenon; rather, it is likely to continue to bedevil mankind for the foreseeable future.” – The Causes of War by Efraim Karsh (Freedman, 2007).
Efraim Karsh brings concise context to the inherent violence of humans. All evidence points to a continued history of violence among Homo sapiens. But Kant’s grandiose principles for perpetual peace may still be necessary. If mutually assured destruction actually increases the probability of a nuclear war, the cessation of violence among humans may be an essential objective for the survival of humanity.
“The narrower or wider community of all nations on earth has in fact progressed so far that a violation of law and right in one place is felt in all others. Hence the idea of a cosmopolitan or world law is not a fantastic and utopian way of looking at law, but a necessary completion of the unwritten code of constitutional and international law to make it a public law of mankind. Only under this condition can we flatter ourselves that we are continually approaching eternal peace. (Kant, 1795/1949)”
Are humans preparing for war or peace? Are Homo sapiens racing towards extinction or survival? Is peace possible? Or, are wars inevitable?
Citations:
ACLED. (2024, May 16). ACLED | Bringing Clarity to Crisis. https://acleddata.com/
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Bailey, R., & Tupy, M. L. (2020). Ten global trends every smart person should know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting.
Bastian Herre, Lucas Rodés-Guirao, Max Roser, Joe Hasell and Bobbie Macdonald (2024) – “War and Peace” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace’ [Online Resource]
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Davies, S., Pettersson, T., & Öberg, M. (2023). Organized violence 1989–2022, and the return of conflict between states. Journal of Peace Research, 60(4), 691-708. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231185169
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https://acleddata.com/2021/03/18/acled-2020-the-year-in-review/
https://acleddata.com/2023/01/31/global-disorder-2022-the-year-in-review/#s2
Deliberating Truth 